Juraj Mesík, May 2016,
published in “The Last Empire – Texts on the Agony of Russia”
In 1969 Russian historian Andrei Amalrik wrote his famous essay “Will the Soviet Union survive
until 1984?” At the time when Soviet Union appeared as a solid, unshakeable, almost eternal
entity “ forged forever by mighty Rus” 1 and no known western sovietologists were considering
the possibility of the Soviet Union´s collapse. Amalrik anticipated, that within the next short 15
years the USSR would disintegrate. History proved him almost right.
To understand the boldness of his prediction, one has to recall the time when it was made. Just
eight years earlier, the USSR succeeded in sending the first man to the space. Only one year
earlier, the invasion of tanks sent to Czechoslovakia, destroyed hopes for “socialism with a
human face” and broke the neck for the last chance to reform the Soviet Block.
When the Soviet Union´s successor meets the same end – as is suggested and outlined in this
essay – will the U.S. and West be equally surprised and forced to chaotic improvisation as was
the case in the aftermath of 1991? Or can the West – the United States in particular – this time
prepare in advance and hopefully better for such a scenario?
The article in pdf available here
Juraj MESÍK 